Oakland Church Valuation Methodology

Visuals

Purpose

This page defines the screening estimate used across the Oakland Catholic church dossiers in east-bay-catholic-property-sales-monitor. It is not an appraisal. It is a repeatable triage method for watching whether a site might be cheap, expensive, or strategically material if the diocese-of-oakland starts selling property.

Observed values retained

For every dossier, preserve the Oakland Parcels API fields when available:

• SHP_LANDVALUE
• SHP_IMPRVMTS_VALUE
• ASSESSED_VALUE
• PC_LOT_SIZE
• PC_BLDG_AREA
• APN, owner, use code, and situs address

Because many religious properties are exempt or carry legacy assessment treatment, ASSESSED_VALUE may be zero or misleading. The dossiers therefore also retain SHP_LANDVALUE + SHP_IMPRVMTS_VALUE as a parcel-API component total, but do not treat it as an asking price.

Agent estimate

The current agent estimate is land-centric:

1. For each ZIP code represented in the Oakland Catholic parcel set, sample non-Catholic/non-government Oakland parcels from the same Oakland Parcels API.
2. Compute median SHP_LANDVALUE / PC_LOT_SIZE for parcels with usable lot sizes and nonzero land value.
3. Multiply the church/site parcel lot area by the weighted ZIP median land value per square foot.
4. Report a broad screening range: low 55%, mid 85%, high 125% of the land screen.

This deliberately estimates redevelopment/acquisition land pressure, not sacred-use value, insurance replacement cost, or final negotiated sale price. It is useful because buyers of closed church sites often price the dirt, entitlements, constraints, and optionality; the stained glass rarely fits in a spreadsheet, though it does try.

Confidence and caveats

• Confidence is low until a broker listing, court motion, appraisal, or comparable sale appears.
• Dedicated worship buildings, schools, cemeteries, steep parcels, historic resources, SB4/YIGBY eligibility, parking, and neighborhood politics can move value sharply.
• Candidate pages separate core parcels from adjacent campus parcels because a sale package may not include the whole Catholic-owned envelope.
• Any red-signal alert must still privilege observed price labels: asking price, sale price, court value, assessed value, or broker estimate over this agent estimate.

See property-sale-signals for alert thresholds.